high e

The ante keeps going up. 5 Ghz on the desktop. A resolution to write a new oklo post every day. An alarmingly effective new .php-based approach over at Jean Schneider’s Extrasolar Planets Encyclopaedia. The rapidly increasing rate of planet detection is causing the census of extrasolar planets to close in fast on the two hundred mark. Weird new worlds uncovered by the microlensing collaboration and the OGLE wide-field transit survey are starting to accumulate in the electronic annals of astro-ph. The radial velocity programs are cranking up their productivity with high-yield surveys like N2K. And we here at oklo.org have to stay on our toes to keep the transitsearch.org candidates table and the Systemic Console system list up to date.

Live fitting with the Systemic Console

The rapidly growing collection of extrasolar planets is really starting to crowd the semi-major axis — eccentricity, or “a-e“, diagram. This (very nearly) up-to-date version shows 171 planets detected with the radial velocity technique, with e=0.2, e=0.5, and e=0.8 orbital figures shown on the y-axis for reference:

latest tally of extrasolar planets

The swarm of planets in the above a-e diagram includes three newly announced (and very interesting) new systems whose radial velocity data sets have just been added to the console’s system menu: HD 187085, HD 20782, and HD 45350. I’ll check back soon with a detailed discussion of these planets and their implications, but in the meantime, try using the Systemic Console to fit them.

One last thing: I was at a meeting last week where there was a Windows-based machine sitting on the table in front of me. When I brought up the www.oklo.org in Internet Explorer, I was aghast to see that the menu of links (which you should see to your right) had been pushed all the way down to the bottom of the page. I had to scroll all the way down to even see it. We thought we had fixed this problem, but apparently not. We’re working on it. Also, if you are a Macintosh user, run the console in Safari. There is a still a Java issue with the Firefox on OS X. Firefox should, however, work fine on both Linux and Windows machines if your Java libraries are up to date…

GJ 876 — cracked with the console!

Users familiar with console tutorial #3 will have noticed that the self-consistent 2-planet fit to the remarkable multi-planet system orbiting GJ 876 is presented as a fait accompli. We are currently implementing an “epoch” slider for the console which will greatly smooth the transition from Keplerian to Newtonian fits for interacting systems, but amazingly, it turns out to be possible to obtain a competitive 3-planet fit to the Rivera et al (2005) GJ 876 data set using only the current version of the systemic console. This post gives the details, and gets a bit technical, so if you are interested in following it closely, we suggest that you first work through tutorials 1, 2, and 3.

Also, a cautionary remark. The 3-planet integrated fit requires patience. I was able to get the fit described below in about 2 hours on a machine with two 3.4 GHz Intel Xeon CPU’s (with hyperthreading turned on). Thus, I was able to use the other CPU’s to do other work. On single-core, single-processor machines, the systemic console will hog the CPU (unless it’s niced and put in the background).

In any case, here’s the 411:

Continue reading

systemic 001

saturn as seen by the approaching cassini probe (nasa/jpl)

The goal of the systemic research collaboration is to improve our statistical understanding of the galactic planetary census. This will be accomplished through a large-scale simulation in which the public is invited to participate.

At the core of the systemic simulation, we have generated a realistic catalog that contains 100,000 stars, and we have created planetary systems in orbit around some of these stars. As the collaboration unfolds, the systemic catalog of stars will be “observed” using a realistic model of the radial velocity technique, and a radial velocity data set for each star will be made available. Participants will use the systemic console (or their own software if they choose) to discover and characterize planets within the data sets.

The measured orbital properties and distributions of the planets that are uncovered in the systemic data sets will eventually be compared with the known properties of the planets that were placed into orbit around the systemic catalog stars.

Why the name systemic?

We have four answers: (1) The collaboration utilizes a planetary system integrator console. (2) We are seeking to better understand the statistical distribution of planetary system initial conditions in the galaxy. (3) We hope that the collaboration will make the analysis of extrasolar planetary systems more evident, “Ahh, now I see!” (4) Finally, and most importantly, the planetary systems that we have designed are fully internally consistent. (More on this later.)

The project will officially start in early 2006. In the meantime, we have released a beta version of the systemic console, along with three tutorials (1, 2, and 3). The www.oklo.org site is also a weblog where we’ve been posting a variety of articles on the topic of extrasolar planets and their detection and characterization.

Currently, the systemic console has access to a number of published radial velocity data sets for real stars containing known planetary systems. We have also added the first star of the systemic catalog (which coincidently shows definite indications of harboring a planetary system). Launch the console, choose systemic001 from the system menu, and use the comment space for this post to let us know what you find!

— The Systemic Team,

Greg Laughlin — UC Santa Cruz

Stefano Meschiari — University of Bologna

Eugenio Rivera — UC Santa Cruz

Paul Shankland — US Naval Observatory

Aaron Wolf — UC Santa Cruz

55’s the limit

55 Cancri is an ordinary nearby star, barely visible to the naked eye. Through a modest telescope (or, more practically, with the use of the Goddard Skyview) one sees that it is actually a binary pair.

Goddard Skyview Image of 55 Cancri

55 Cancri “A” (the bright star in the middle of the above photo) harbors an extraordinary planetary system. Indeed, it was the subtlety and the depth of the 55 Cancri radial velocity data set that motivated us to develop the systemic console. The fact that the 55 Cancri system continues to defy easy categorization gives us confidence that the systemic collaboration will be a worthwhile project.

Where to begin?

Click on the system menu on the console, scroll down, and select 55 Cancri. (If you’re unfamiliar with the console, and if you’re the methodical type, there are three tutorials available on the menu bar to the right. Otherwise, just follow along!) The published radial data for 55 Cancri now appears in the main console window. The sweeping spray of points, with its curiously non-uniform distribution, contains a fascinating narrative in its own right.

The very first point in the data set has a timestamp of JD 2447578.73 A Julian Date Converter tells us that this was 9:31 PM on Monday Feb. 20, 1989 (Pacific Standard Time). The observation was obtained by Geoff Marcy at the Shane 3-meter telescope at Lick Observatory on Mt. Hamilton, and the velocity error is 9.7 m/s. Back in 1989, Geoff and his colleague Paul Butler were laboring to improve their iodine cell technique, and were struggling to get enough telescope time to adequately track the motion of about 70 nearby solar type stars with the eventual hope of detecting giant planets.

The first 10 radial velocity points were obtained at a rate of 1 to 3 per year. With hindsight, it is easy to see that these 10 points are ample cause for a planet-hunter to be optimistic. The radial velocity variation in the first 10 points spans more than 100 meters per second, suggesting a signal with a signal-to-noise of at least five. The periodogram of these ten points shows a strong peak at 14.65 days, indicating that the data could be explained by a planet with 80% of Jupiter’s mass, circling on an orbit lasting just over two weeks.

Today, if such a planet were discovered, the announcement would not make the news, and the major excitement would be among amateur transit hunters, who would likely have a new high-priority follow-up candidate with a ~5% transit probability. (A two-week period is right at the borderline where transits can be reliably confirmed or ruled out by the photometric collaborators working with the RV-discovery teams prior to announcement of the planet).

In 1993, however, nobody was expecting to find Jovian planets in 14-day orbits. Conventional wisdom at the time was informed by the architecture of our own solar system, and held that gas giant planets should be found beyond the so-called snowline (located at r=4-5 AU) of the protostellar disk. Although the theory of orbital migration had been studied in considerable detail, nobody had proposed that giant planets might regularly spiral in and then be marooned on very short-period orbits. I don’t know whether Geoff and Paul even considered the possibility that the 14.65 day peak in their data was real. If they saw the peak, it is more likely that they would have ascribed it to an alias, an artifact of their uneven hard-won sampling.

During 1994, the velocities suddenly started to trend upward. This would have seemed rather disconcerting, and may even have raised alarm. Was some unaccounted-for instrumental or astrophysical process affecting the newer radial velocity data? Certainly, at the end of 1994, the case for a planet orbiting 55 Cancri would have been weaker than it had been a year earlier.

Nevertheless, the 55 Cancri campaign was at an important turning point. The last measurement of 1994 (JD 2449793.80) has a remarkably lower error (3.3 m/s) than any of the earlier radial velocities. In November of 1994, the Schmidt camera optics on the “Hamilton” spectograph at Lick Observatory had been upgraded, and the resulting improvement effectively tripled the intrinsic resolution to which the spectral lines could be discerned. With the ability to measure radial velocities to a precision of 3 m/s, the planet search had suddenly entered an entirely new realm. When one is in the business of detecting Jupiters, a velocity measurement with 3 m/s precision is literally 10 times as valuable as a velocity with 10 m/s precision.

In October 1995, Mayor and Queloz announced their discovery of a Jupiter-like planet in a 4.5 day orbit around the nearby star 51 Peg. Due to a catalog error that misclassified 51 Peg as a subgiant, it had not been included in Geoff and Paul’s survey, but they were able to rapidly confirm the Swiss discovery.

All at once, the idea of a gas giant with a 2-week orbit was no longer outlandish at all. The telescopes on Mt. Hamilton, which had been slipping inexorably in worldwide prestige as larger telescopes were built on higher mountains, were suddenly at the forefront of relevance. The Lick 3-meter telescope-iodine-cell-spectrograph combination was the best instrument in the world for obtaining precision doppler velocities of bright stars such as 55 Cancri. Extrasolar planets were front page news. Alotments of telescope time increased dramatically. In the six months running from December 1995 through May 1996, 55 Cancri was observed 41 times at Lick. This drastic increase in the cadence of observations is easily visible in the radial data:

1996 RVs

With the 41 high-quality observations, the presence of the 14.65 day planet was obvious in the power spectrum.

RV powerspectrum

In October 1996, Paul, Geoff, and several other collaborators announced the discovery of the 14.65 day planet, and in January 1997, they published the discovery in a now classic paper that also introduced the world to the inner planetary companions of Tau Bootes and Upsilon Andromedae.

With eight years of data, it was clear that other bodies were present in the system. In the discovery paper, Butler et al. wrote:

The residuals exhibit a long-term trend, starting at -80 m/s in 1989 and climbing to +10 m s-1 by 1994 (the velocity zero point is arbitrary). The velocities appeared to decline toward 0 m s/1 during the past year, although at least another year of data will be required for confirmation. This trend and the possible curvature in the velocity residuals are consistent with a second companion orbiting HR 3522 [aka 55 Cancri] with a period P > 8 yr and M sin i > 5MJUP.

This speculation proved to be correct. Use the console to get a best-fit for the 14.65 day planet, and compute the periodogram of the residuals to the fit:

RV residuals powerspectrum

The strongest remaining peak is at 4260 days, corresponding to an 11.7 year orbit (very similar to Jupiter’s 11.8 year orbital period). Keeping the orbits circular, use the “polish” button to produce a Levenberg-Marquardt optimized fit. Zoom in and scroll to show the time interval between 1996 and 2002. The gaps each year when the star is behind the Sun as seen from Earth are easily visible:

Lick RVs 1996-2002

The two planet system does quite a reasonable (but by no means perfect) job of reproducing the observed radial velocities. After the announcement of the first planet at the end of 1996, interest in the star died down to some degree. The number of target stars being observed at Lick was being increased as Debra Fischer stepped in to manage the Lick Survey, and other systems, especially Upsilon Andromedae, were clamoring for telescope time. During the 1998 season, 55 Cancri was observed only twice. By 1999, however, the Upsilon Andromedae system had been sorted out, and renewed attention was focused on 55 Cancri. During 2000 and 2001, it became clear that the system likely contained at least three planets. With the 14.65 and (in my fit) 5812 day planets removed from the radial velocity curve, the residuals periodogram shows a peak at 44.3 days:

residuals of the residuals

The signal from the 44.3 day planet is not as strong as for the other two planets, but a large number of velocities from 2002 seemed to clinch the case for this third planet:

residuals of the residuals

Use the console to optimize the three planet fit using circular Keplerian orbits. When I do this, the chi-square statistic is reduced to 6.4, and the rms scatter is 12.5 m/s. The fit is still not perfect. Either the planets are eccentric, or there are additional planets in the system.

fresh extrasolar planets

fresh extrasolar planets

In a recent article appearing in the Astrophysical Journal, Vogt et al. (2005) published radial velocity data for six stars that appear to harbor multiple low-mass companions. The data for all six stars (HD 37124, HD 50499, HD 108874, HD 128311, HD 190360, and HD 217107) have been added to the system menu of the Systemic Console:

new systems in the console

If you’ve worked through the console tutorials 1, 2, and 3, take a crack at using the console to fit these systems. HD 37124, in particular, is open to several different stable 3-planet configurations. In my current personal favorite fit, three very nearly equal-mass planets are caught up in an endless (or at least multi-billion year) cycle of rub-a-dub-dub. An .mpg animation of the long-term dynamical evolution of the orbits is here. Because the planets in this particular fit are fairly widely spaced, the motion is quite well described by second-order secular theory.

Now fielding three tutorials

Three detailed console tutorials have recently been developed, and are now online at oklo.org.

Tutorial #1 steps through the basic features of the console, using the published radial velocity data-set for the Jupiter-like planet orbiting HD 4208.


Tutorial #2
takes a more detailed look at the console, and shows how to use periodograms and multiple-planet fitting to recover the three planetary companions (the so-called Fourpiter, Twopiter, and Dinky) orbiting Upsilon Andromedae.


Tutorial #3
tackles the tough problem of multiple-planet fitting in the presence of planet-planet interactions, and uses the console to explore the remarkable, recently published Gl 876 data set.

The console has landed.

After more than a year of development work, the beta version of the systemic console java applet is now up and working at oklo.org. Hats off to Aaron Wolf for coding it into reality.

In a series of posts, we will look in detail at the organization, operation, and features contained in the console. For now, however, rev up your G4s and your G5s, take it for a spin, and let us know how it works for you.

The current location for the console is:

www.oklo.org/SystemicBeta/SystemicBeta.html.

It’s also accesible from the menu bar to the right. At the moment it has been tested only with Safari 2.0.2 running on OSX 10.4.3. Firefox 1.0.6 still seems to have issues with the applet. We’ll resolve these first, and then (with CDR Paul Shankland leading the charge) we’ll move on to thwart Bill Gates’ best attempts to protect the MS Explorer user base from Systemic’s seductive charms…

Hello world.

What is systemic?

Systemic is a public research collaboration. Systemic’s goal is to obtain a better understanding of the census of planets in the galaxy.

The systemic blog, hosted by oklo.org, provides a framework for updates and information relating to the collaboration. It also serves as an online forum for discussion of extrasolar planets.