TrES-2 follow-up

The transit game is getting to be a competitive global business. No sooner is a new transit announced than amateur astronomers worldwide are on the sky to obtain follow-up observations. Tonny Vanmunster, of Landen Belgium and Ron Bissinger of Pleasanton California are generally among the first to check in with confirmations. Vanmunster nailed TrES-1 a mere week after its announcement in 2004. Last summer, Bissinger caught HD 149026b on literally the day it was announced. In the case of TrES-2, which was announced yesterday, it looks like Vanmunster has snagged the prize. “What’s up, Cali?”

[Actually, it was both cloudy and the middle of the day in Pleasanton while Vanmunster was on the sky. But there’s a transit tomorrow night, Sept. 10/11 PDT, that Ron’ll likely catch.]

Here’s Vanmunster’s light curve. The transit was in progress at dusk in Belgium, so he was able to observe only the latter part of the event.

Vanmunster writes:

Here are some technical details : observations were made at CBA Belgium Observatory, using two 0.35-m f/6.3 Celestron telescopes, each equipped with an SBIG ST-7XME CCD camera. I simultaneously made unfiltered and R-band observations (hence the 2 telescopes). The included light curve is unfiltered, and each dot in the curve is the average value of 5 successive observations (binned). The gray lines show the standard deviation (about 4 millimag on average). Exposure time was 15 to 20 sec.

The egress is very evident in the light curve, and happened right at the predicted time. The transit depth was approx. 0.0155 mag, which again corresponds well with the value published in the discovery paper.

Follow-up observations such as the ones made by Vanmunster and Bissinger can be very scientifically useful. For example, Vanmunster’s 2004 observations allowed us to get an improved estimate of the TrES-1 planetary radius, and he co-authored a journal article with us on that topic. Both Vanmunster and Bissinger were involved in the discovery of X0-1, and both are co-authors on the recent Shankland et al. paper which I’ll talk up in an upcoming post.

TrES-2

TrES-2

Image Source.

When I teach Astronomy 101, I like to brag about my weight early and often during the class. For example, when I introduce the concept of energy, I’ll tell the students, “Let’s say you have a guy like me. You know, six foot three, 285 lbs (129 kg)… pause… If I’m running down the street at 9 meters per second, then my kinetic energy is 10,449 Joules.”

The first time that I floss my weight, there’s usually a slight rustle through the lecture hall, but generally nobody says anything. Students in the back row glance up slightly startled from their online poker games, then adjust their hoodies and ante up for the next hand.

As the quarter progresses, I’ll find other opportunities to claim an outrageous heft. “Take me, for example, I weigh 287 lbs… pause… solid muscle.”

Usually, that line finally gets a rise out of someone, “You don’t weigh 287!” they’ll blurt out, “You’re more like 150!”

“Are you challenging me?” I’ll roar, “Anyone want an F on the next exam?” Nervous laughter. Eventually, a few more classes in, everyone just rolls their eyes when I remind them of my outrageously high mass.

Eventually, when I get all the way out to the galactic scale, I reach the topic of dark matter and I can cash in on the long set-up. “Look at that rotation curve!” I’ll say, “The orbital velocities of the galaxies in this cluster suggest that there’s many times more mass present than we can observe in the form of stars. It’s like [pause] It’s as if some guy who looks like he weighs 160 steps on the scale and it turns out that he actually weighs 285.”

They laugh and the joke works because we’re able to look at a person and make a mental estimate of their mass. When it comes to extrasolar planets, however, judging mass by size has proved to be effectively impossible. If you are in the vicinity of a hot Jupiter, and are able to measure its radius, you’ll have little basis for judging how massive it is. That is, the mass-radius relation for hot Jupiters isn’t a single-valued function, and we don’t know why. Indeed, understanding the radii of the known transiting planets is one of the most currently interesting exoplanet research topics.

I’ve written several oklo posts about the size problem for the short-period extrasolar planets [see here, here, here, here and here]. In a nutshell, within the aggregate of transiting exoplanets that orbit stars bright enough for high-precision follow-up, there’s a full range of size discrepancies. HD 149026 b is much smaller than would be predicted for a standard-issue Jovian planet of its mass and temperature. TrES-1 has a radius that agrees very well with the theoretical predictions. HD 189733 is somewhat on the large side, and HD 209458 b, famously, is much larger than predicted. [In tomorrow’s post, I’ll give an update on the hydrodynamical simulations that we’ve been doing with the goal of eventually sorting out whether HD 209458 b is caught in Cassini state two.]

It’s therefore still a big deal whenever a new transit is discovered in association with a bright parent star. Today, the TrES collaboration, (who bagged TrES-1 back in ’04) are rolling out a new transiting planet — TrES-2.

TrES-2 is a more-or-less standard-issue hot Jupiter. At 1.28 Jupiter masses, it’s a little more massive than the average short-period planet, and its orbital period of 2.47 days is slightly shorter than the 3-day average period exhibited by this class of objects. The TrES-2 parent star is very similar in mass, radius, and temperature to the Sun. It lies in Lyra, and has a V-band magnitude of 11.4 (making it ideal for follow-up observations by amateurs — check out the transitsearch.org ephemeris table here).

Turns out that TrES-2 is on the large side. Our theoretical models predict a radius of 1.07 Jovian radii if the planet has a core, and 1.11 Jovian radii if it is core-free. The measured radius is 1.24 Jovian radii, with a lower error bar of 0.06 Jovian radii. The planet is thus a bit more than 2-sigma larger than the core-free model, and provides evidence that the mechanism responsible for providing extra heat (and expansion) to these planets is a relatively generic and commonplace phenomenon. It’s hard to invoke special purpose explanations for HD 209458 b’s radius when there’s a slew of other transiting planets that suffer a similar bloat.

One reason I like transiting planets is that they can be drawn to scale with their orbits and parent stars. In TrES-2’s case, the geometry looks like this:

TrES-2 system to scale

With Illustrator’s scale tool, it’s easy to insert TrES-2 into our planetary police line-up:

Five for the show

Curiously, the TrES-2 paper makes no mention of the metallicity of the TrES-2 parent star. The metallicity is of great interest because it will allow a test of the Guillot et al. hypothesis that the planetary radii are the result of a concentration mechanism that greatly amplifies the overall solids content of short-period exoplanets that orbit high-metallicity stars. I asked Dave Charbonneau if his team had anything up their sleeve in the metallicity department. He told me that they haven’t had time to get an accurate measurement, and that the number will be released in a follow-up paper.

Amazingly, TrES-2 lies in the field of view of the Kepler Mission. This means that the Kepler satellite will make repeated high-precision measurements of the TrES-2 light curve, with a photometric precision of about one part in 10,000 and a cadence of 15 minutes. This data will allow for very accurate determinations of the durations between transits. By observing small variations in the orbital period, you can detect other bodies in the system, in many cases with masses down into the terrestrial regime. The process by which this is done is highly analagous to the multiparameter fitting process that one uses when running the console, with transit intervals playing an analogous role to the usual radial velocity measurements. Once we get our plate cleared of current console improvements — integrator, bootstrapper, multi-threading, etc. etc., we’ll reconfigure it to enable a look at planet detection via transit timing.

New Texas V’s

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Data data data. Robert Wittenmyer and his colleagues at the University of Texas have just posted a paper on astro-ph that contains a slew of new radial velocities for several famous planet-bearing stars, including 47 UMa, 14 Her, and 16 Cyg B. The velocities are all tabulated in the paper, so we’ll have them up on the systemic backend very shortly. [I’ll post a comment to this post when they’re up on the site. If you’re totally gung ho to get them right away, you can extract them from the posted latex file at astro-ph, and then add them manually to systemic’s datafiles directory.]

We always try to add new radial velocity data sets as soon as they become publicly available, and lately, these updates have been occurring roughly once per week. For the time being, the simplest way to get your fresh V’s is to rename your old systemic directory, and then download a new console. When the new console and catalog data are downloaded and unzipped, you can copy any previous fits and soundfiles that you’ve created into the new fits and soundClips directories.

The data in the Wittenmyer paper come from both the Harlan J. Smith 2.7-meter telescope and the Hobbey-Eberly 9.2-meter telescope. The cadence of the Smith telescope observations typifies the usual pattern of radial velocity survey data. The individual points are spaced essentially randomly in time, with many days separating each point. The Hobbey-Ebery data, on the other hand, are quite different. These data are much more densely sampled, and many nights contain several velocities in succession. In many stretches, the star is observed every few nights. This pattern results from queue-scheduling, which enables very intensive monitoring of systems that are of particular interest. I think queue scheduling is the wave of the future, and in the systemic simulation, we’ll have many synthetic data sets whose cadences correspond to the queue-scheduled approach.

The most prominent planet orbiting 14 Her has been known since the late 1990s. This world, known as 14 Her “b”, has a minimum mass about 4.6 times that of Jupiter, and a period of ~1770 days. If it were in our solar system, it would orbit in the asteroid belt. The parent star 14 Her is about 90% as massive as the Sun, and is more than twice as metal-rich. Given the planet-metallicity connection, it’s absolutely no surprise that 14 Her has a heavy-duty planetary system. I bet that 14 Her “b” has a very interesting system of satellites.

It’s pretty clear from the one planet fit that 14 Her “b” is not the only planet in the system, and over the weekend, several systemic users have submitted interesting fits to the data that reduce the chi-square by adding a second planet. For example, on August 30, user mikevald uploaded a two-planet fit in which the second planet, 14 Her “c”, has a period of 6159 days and an eccentricity e=0.52. This model currently fields the lowest chi-square statistic of any of the submitted 14 Her fits. The orbits in this best-fit system are crossing, however, indicating that the model may not be dynamically stable over the long run. On September 5th, allanfloering submitted a fit with nearly as good a chi-square, in which the outer planet has a 14,669 day period and an eccentricity e=0.09. Allanfloering’s world, if it exists, lies 11.77 AU from 14 Her, out at a Saturn-like distance.

Wittenmyer et al. show that the addition of their new 14 Her data suggests that 14 Her “c” has a period of order 6900 days, albeit with a low eccentricity. In their models, “c” and “b” may be participating in 4:1 resonance. A quick fit on the console with the Wittenmyer et al data included gives a radial velocity curve that looks like this:

corresponding to a planetary configuration that has an outer planet with a modest eccentricity e=0.20.

As soon as the data go up on the site, feel free to try working up improvements. It will be interesting to see how many fits to the full 3-telescope data set are participating in 4:1 resonance.

Web 2.0

fenceposts at ucsc

Hey ya’ll, there’s a whole lotta fittin’ goin on out there in the back 40.

Seriously, though. We’re really seeing a great response from users who are contributing their efforts. Nearly 200 people have registered on the back-end during the past few days, and over 750 different radial velocity fits have been uploaded. Hopefully we’ll see that work continue to flow in, and everyone has been showing admirable patience as we smooth out the inevitable rough spots which began to show up as soon as we had a surge of real users on the site.

If you’re arriving by way of the Sky and Telescope article, you’ll notice that the full universe of 100,000 synthetic stars is not yet listed on the systemic backend. During September, we’re still carrying out the first phase of our planned research effort, which consists of accumulating a wide variety of fits to the full collection of actual, published radial velocity data sets. Very soon, we will have accumulated enough fits to be able to present a dynamic, interactive catalog of candidate planets. A query-based dynamically generated planetary catalog will allow a variety of very interesting questions to be answered. For instance, by how much can one deflate the famous eccentricity-period diagram, while still demanding a prespecified goodness-of-fit for all of the candidate planets?

generated at exoplanet.eu

At the moment, such questions are hard to answer, because (other than here at oklo) there is no consolidated repository of radial velocity data and associated self-consistent fits.

In order to make dynamically generated planet catalogs scientifically useful, we’re going to have to provide several more tools to the users. As I mentioned yesterday, the console will soon be multi-threaded, which will make it easier to use for high-performance work. In the interim, however, you can have the console print a stream of diagnostic messages by launching it from the command line. For example, on linux or OSX architectures, open a terminal (shell), cd to the systemic directory, and type java -jar systemic.jar at the prompt . The diagnostics provide a running update of the progress of the console as it produces fits to the data set.

We’ll also soon be providing a long-term integration window that will allow users to verify that their model systems are dynamically stable. It’s alarmingly easy to find multiple-planet fits to radial velocity data sets that have low values for the reduced chi-square statistic, but in which the planets experience dynamical disasters (collisions, ejections, close encounters, etc.) on a time scale that is short in comparison to the known age of the parent star. Indeed, most of the candidate stars in the back-end catalog are more than 2 billion years old. Young stars tend to be rapidly rotating, which broadens their absorption lines and makes radial velocity measurements less accurate. Rapidly rotating stars also tend to have elevated levels of magnetically driven chromospheric activity, which adds additional noise to the velocity estimates.

And finally, the console needs to provide error estimates on the orbital parameters that it generates. This is best done using the so-called bootstrap method, which we’ll discuss in an upcoming post.

Systemic Challenge — data set #1

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We’re continuing to see a strong influx of new users and activity on the systemic backend. Thanks to everyone who’s taking part! If you’re a first-time visitor to the Systemic Project website, please read the weblog entries that follow this post. They contain the information you need to start participating, and they give a recent day-by-day overview of the project developments.

Now that we’ve got an active user-base for the systemic console, we’re pleased to release the first Systemic Challenge synthetic radial velocity data set. This data set corresponds to a realistic simulated planetary system that is both scientifically interesting and non-trivial to fit.

Sky and Telescope is sponsoring the world’s first radial velocity fitting contest in connection with our challenge system. The person who submits the self-consistent (integrated) fit to the data having a chi-square value closest to one will receive a paperback edition of the Millennium Star Atlas (a $149.95 value).

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consolidation

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Wow! The American Scientist and Sky and Telescope articles are clearly getting the word out. We’ve been seeing a significant increase in traffic on the oklo.org site, both in terms of visits (yellow bars) and bandwidth and page views (green and blue bars). The bandwidth increase is especially gratifying. It reflects the fact that many users are registering on the back-end, downloading the console, and submitting fits. As I write this, new and interesting fits for a variety of different radial velocity data sets are rolling in to the star catalog. Our goal of fostering original, public-participation exoplanet research is starting to be realized, and I want to thank everyone who’s lending a hand.

Late August stats.

If you’re a first-time visitor to the Systemic Project website, please read the blog entries that were posted prior to this entry. They contain the information you need to start participating, and they give an overview of the current project status. If you are a return visitor, please have a look at the updated back-end. Stefano has made a number of code and design improvements that streamline the workflow and make the site easier to navigate.

On to some planet issues. The Mu Ara (HD 169061) system, which contains four known planets, is shaping up to have significant implications for the systemic project. Intense interest in the system has been spurred by a recent paper from the Swiss group (Pepe et al. 2006) that presents a self-consistent 4-planet model. Pepe et al.’s orbital fit (given in their Table 1) provides an excellent match to the radial velocity data sets, but when they carried out a long-term integration of the system, they found that the gravitational interactions between the planets lead to catastrophe after 76 million years. The parent star Mu Arae has an estimated age of 6.4 billion years, so clearly we don’t yet have a full understanding of what’s going on with this system.

The discord within the Pepe et al. model is provided by the two middle planets, one of which has a 310 day orbit, and the other which orbits in 643 days. The planets are on the edge of the 2:1 mean motion resonance, with the practical consequence that they experience a strongly chaotic orbital evolution. The orbits change eccentricity and orientation on a timescale of only decades:

I’ve made a movie that tracks the evolution of the orbits over 528 years. Here are links to a .mov version (288 kB) and an .mp4 version (1.5 MB). It’s clear from the movie that the interaction is both complicated and unpredictable. The planets display no catastrophic excursions on the 500 year timescale of the movie, but eventually, they experience orbit crossings leading to a likely ejection of the inner 0.5 Jupiter mass planet.

The Mu Ara dataset HD169061_B06P06CH on the console back-end combines both the Pepe et al. data as well as the most recent data from Butler et al. 2006. I’m hoping that someone can get a stable, self-consistent, low chi-square fit to this combined data set. Such a fit would give the best available view of what’s going on with the system, and would underscore the scientific relevance of the systemic project.

more updates

We’ve been seeing a nice increase on traffic here at oklo.org as the Sky and Telescope and American Scientist articles show up in mailboxes and on newstands. If you’re new to the site, welcome aboard, and please read the last several posts. They give a brief overview of the Systemic Project, and tell you what you need to start fitting systems.

As you may have noticed, we’re hard at work improving the usability of the site. Stefano, in particular, has done an amazing amount of work on the back-end over the past several days. It really is taking shape as a genuine research environment, and we absolutely are urging you to try it out while we’re putting the definitive users manual together. You can’t break anything, and if you post questions, we’ll make sure they get answered on a timely basis.

A few news items:

(1) There are two separate channels for registration on systemic. The first, accessed through the “login” tab on the site header above, is part of the WordPress package that runs the oklo blog. Registration on the blog allows you to comment on the oklo.org posts. The second, accessed through the “backend” tab on the site header, gives you access to the collaborative php-based environment that constitutes the systemic backend. You can register for either or both, and you don’t need to give your real name or any real-world identifying information other than an e-mail address.

(2) We’ve been working to design the first systemic challenge radial velocity data set, which will be released on Monday September 4th. The user who finds the fit with a reduced chi-square closest to unity will win a $149 Sky Atlas from Sky and Telescope. Both professional and amateur planet hunters are encouraged to participate, but given the groundswell of activity that we’re seeing on the systemic back-end, and given the console’s ability to carry out self-consistent fits, the smart money is on an amateur winner.

Updated back end

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Stefano (while in the midst of writing his astrophysics thesis in Bologna!) has somehow found the time to implement a whole slew of very cool improvements to the Systemic back end. New aspects include a search function, a personal “fits” library, and a variety of interactive features designed to aid collaboration and make the user experience more rewarding.

We’re working on a full user manual for both the downloadable console and the back end, but in the meantime, we’re really urging users to (1) download the console, (2) create a free account on the back end, (3) work through the systemic console tutorials one, two, and three, (4) upload fits, and (5) start collaborating. There are a number of real systems in the star catalog which can be profitably characterized and improved. I’m also very interested to see what people come up with for the datasets systemic001 and systemic002.

Do give it a try, and please give us feedback, either in the comments section on the back-end, or in the comments section for this post.

Two tips: (1) For Mac-users, Firefox provides a better interface to the back-end than does Safari. (2) At the moment, the user-interface looks better if you resize to a wider browser window.

The mu Arae four

flowerstalk

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With the verdict in on Pluto, we here at oklo.org will have to revert to sober, scientifically rigorous posts on extrasolar planetary systems to keep our readership and ad rates up. And as soon as I can figure out how to make WordPress launch those “swing for the fences” pop-ups from our site, we’ll be increasing our revenue stream even more.

American Scientist has just published my article on planet formation and extrasolar planets in their September/October issue. The article wraps up with a description of the systemic console, and the systemic collaborative research project. If you’re an American Scientist reader visiting oklo.org for the first time, welcome aboard!

Several posts back, I put up a brief description of the immediate goals of the Systemic collaboration:

The Systemic collaboration is proceeding in three steps. In the first step, which is ongoing, we’ve been gathering all of the radial velocity data that have been published for known planet-bearing stars. These data sets are included in the downloadable systemic console, and the systemic back-end allows participants to upload their own planetary fits to this data. We want to use the data to create a uniform catalog of known planetary systems.

In the second and third phases of the systemic project, we’ll be studying synthetic data sets that have been produced using our own algorithms. “Systemic Jr.” will launch at the beginning of September, and will contain 100 synthetic data sets, four of which will be special challenge systems. The Systemic Challenge, sponsored by Sky and Telescope will be explained in more detail, and will be available at a link on their website. The challenge systems will be released on September 3, 10, 17, and 24, along with a specific set of contest rules. The first person to crack each of these systems will recieve a paperback edition of the Millennium Star Atlas (a $149.95 value). In order to prepare for the contests, go ahead and download a copy of the systemic console, and work through tutorials one, two, and three. A full technical manual for the console is in the works, and will be ready for download quite soon.

Later this Fall, when Systemic Jr. wraps up, we’ll launch the full Systemic simulation. A lot more on this will be posted in the weeks ahead. Our overall goal is to obtain an improved statistical characterization of the galactic planetary census.

The most interesting serious-planet news from the past week has been the paper by the Geneva Extrasolar Planet Search Team that releases an updated radial velocity data set for the nearby solar-type star Mu Arae (also known as HD 160691). As discussed in this post, the console can be used to quickly uncover and characterize the orbits of the four planets that have been announced for the system.

The mu Arae system is remarkable because the two middle planets (with periods P~300 days, planet “d”, and P~640 days, planet “b”) experience strong mutual gravitational interactions during the 5-year time period that the system has been observed. The presence of strong interactions indicates that a model for the system built from independant Keplerian orbits cannot provide a fully realistic fit to the system. In order to build a fully self-consistent fit, one must find an N-body model. The systemic console has this ability, which is enabled whenever the “integrate” box is checked.

N-body integrations are much more time-consuming to compute than simple evaluations of Keplerian fitting functions. The performance of the console thus slows down considerably when integration is enabled. (Note also, that this post now becomes a bit technical. If it sounds like gibberish, you can either skim the next few paragraphs, or, better yet, work through the tutorials on the use of the console.)

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Muarainos

lift your skinny fists like antennae to heaven

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Some things don’t change. Even back in 1846, the planet detection business in our solar system was a rough-and-tumble game. No sooner had Urbain Jean Joseph LeVerrier announced his prediction of the existence and position of Neptune, and had it dramatically verified by Galle and d’Arrest, than the British tried to jump all over the discovery and claim priority for Adams! Not to mention that tricky issue of names. LeVerrier tried various jostling maneuvers with the French Academy to try to get his planet named after himself, but his machinations were unsuccesful and Neptune stuck.

At least LeVerrier didn’t have to wrangle with Nineteenth Century player haters rushing to either (1) strip his newfound world of its planet status, or (2) consign it to the marginalia of the solar system. Neptune packs 8,065.34 times the mass of Pluto and 68,286.7 times the mass of Charon. It’s a planet with a capital P.

Here’s what I find amazing. The dramatic tension of the Prague IAU meeting apparently hinges on the future nomenclature for 2003 UB-313 and its ilk. Even the New York Times, the United States paper of record, makes the episode seem like one of the scientific Big Deals of the year. Oklo dot org manages to climb out of its summer visitors slump on the basis of two chatty posts on the Pluto debate. While all this is going on, an amazing multiple-planet system orbiting the nearby solar-type star HD 160691 receives a new planet and a dramatically improved characterization, and hardly anyone notices.

The downloadable systemic console and the systemic back-end contain several data-sets for HD 169061. The exact data set used by the Geneva group in their astro-ph paper from yesterday is listed in the system menu as HD160691_M04P06CH. (No sooner had I laboriously typed in the table from the .pdf file than Eugenio pointed out that one can simply copy-paste from the text file source on astro-ph. Doh!)

The data used by the Geneva group comes from three telescopes. It includes AAT data from McCarthy et al. 2004, as well as older data from Coralie and new, extremely high-precision data from HARPS. The console therefore loads with three offset sliders.

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Roll your own.

succulent

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The October 2006 issue of Sky and Telescope is just hitting the stands. It contains a feature article — Virtual Planet Sleuths — on the usage of the console and the Systemic collaborative project. If you’ve read the Sky and Telescope article, and are a first-time visitor to oklo.org, welcome aboard!

The Systemic collaboration is proceeding in three steps. In the first step, which is ongoing, we’ve been gathering all of the radial velocity data that have been published for known planet-bearing stars. These data sets are included in the downloadable systemic console, and the systemic back-end allows participants to upload their own planetary fits to this data. We want to use the data to create a uniform catalog of known planetary systems.

In the second and third phases of the systemic project, we’ll be studying synthetic data sets that have been produced using our own algorithms. “Systemic Jr.” will launch at the beginning of September, and will contain 100 synthetic data sets, four of which will be special challenge systems. The Systemic Challenge, sponsored by Sky and Telescope will be explained in more detail, and will be available at a link on their website. The challenge systems will be released on September 3, 10, 17, and 24, along with a specific set of contest rules. The first person to crack each of these systems will recieve a paperback edition of the Millennium Star Atlas (a $149.95 value).

Later this Fall, when Systemic Jr. wraps up, we’ll launch the full Systemic simulation. A lot more on this will be posted in the weeks ahead. Our overall goal is to obtain an improved statistical characterization of the galactic planetary census.

In the Sky and Telescope article, I made a rather bold claim that by using the console, it’s possible to find an as-yet unannounced planet around more than a dozen different stars. The 55 Cancri data set, for example, is an excellent place for aspiring planet hunters to try their hand.

The feasibility of detecting planets in the published data sets was illustrated dramatically over the past week. On August 14th, Krzysztof Gozdziewski, Andrzej Maciejewski, and Cezary Migaszewski posted a preprint on astro-ph which describes their detection of a fourth — then unknown and then unconfirmed — planet orbiting HD 160691 (also known as mu Ara). They detected the planet using their own software, which has a similar set of capabilities to the systemic console, and they used the dataset provided by the recent Butler et al. 2006 catalog paper. They found an orbital period of P~307 days for the planet, a nearly circular orbit, and a mass of 0.5 Jupiter Masses.

Today, on astro-ph, the Geneva Radial Velocity Search team published a paper with an updated set of radial velocities of HD 160691 which were obtained with the HARPS instrument at La Silla. In the abstract of their paper, they write: “We present the discovery of mu Ara d, a new planet on an almost circular 310-days period and with a mass of 0.52 Jupiter Masses”.

So there you go, folks! The planets are in the data sets. You just need to download the console, fire it up, get a good fit, and submit it to the Systemic back-end.

[Note: It’s not clear what (if any) “credit” Gozdziewski et al. will get for their discovery. I don’t want to proffer an opinion on who should get credit in a case like this, mainly because I really don’t care. The Systemic backend includes a public-record chronological list of submitted fits for each radial velocity data set. If you turn up a planetary configuration that later gets confirmed by one of the radial velocity teams, you’ll get the personal satisfaction of knowing you knew about the planet first. What you almost certainly won’t get, however, is official credit for the discovery, or the right to name the planet, etc., etc.

For the synthetic planets in phases 2 and 3 of the Systemic collaboration, however, the discoverers will receive official credit, and they will have the right to name the planets if they choose to do so.]

The Big Planet Debate

planet placemat

Looks like Geoff Marcy won the is-Pluto-a-planet debate. His stylish quote (reminiscent of Pablo Picasso’s comments to the New York Times on the occasion of Apollo 11) dramatically wrapped up Dennis Overbye’s NYT article, and made the whole brouhaha look rather foolish indeed.

I’ve been trying to take the high road too, but so far with no success. This morning, I succumbed to temptation and jumped into the fray by way of Rob Roy Britt’s cnn.com piece, snidely pointing out that eccentric satellite orbits can sometimes lead to the satellite being promoted to a planet for part of the orbit and demoted to a mere moon for the remainder:

Planet? or Moon?

Higher resolution version here.

Then, less than an hour later, I was talking to a departmental colleague about scientifically useful questions, when our conversation suddenly fell into the Pluto trap. We spent an enjoyable half-hour batting around a comfortably well-worn sequence of conversational bon mots. My colleague — an eminent planetary scientist — was pleased to take a tough-guy approach: Eight planets. He’s in favor of a 10-year phase-out for Pluto, now that the New Horizons probe is on its way and (presumably) safely beyond the grasp of NASA budget cuts. We agreed that a decade is more than enough time to give the kids’ plastic placemat manufacturers and textbook publishers enough time to switch the production lines over to the correct version of the solar system.

With the circulation of Alec Wilkinson’s recent New Yorker piece, planet placemats and mobiles have emerged as a topic of discussion. In Kitchenport, in downtown Santa Cruz, there are indeed plastic placemats for sale featuring the eight inner planets and Pluto. I was surprised to find Saturn listed as the “slowest planet” on the mats:

saturn is the slowest planet

This inspired me to one-up my colleague with an even tougher-guy approach: Take a historically stringent view and limit the planets to the five classical wanderers of the heavens, thus dramatically restoring Saturn to its rightful position as the slowest planet.

Bob Naeye over at Sky and Telescope has been blogging the planet debate as well. He caught an arithmetic error in the original version of yesterday’s post. In my haste to slap the post up on the blog, I used da/dt=.374 cm/yr rather than the correct value of da/dt=3.74 cm/yr in the timescale estimation.

A first estimate for the Moon’s promotion timescale can be made with the following logic. The Moon becomes a planet when the distance to the moon is such that the Earth-moon barycenter lies at the surface of the Earth. The barycenter of the orbit at that time will be defined by

tidal evolution eqn. 2

with Rm being the distance from the Earth to the Moon. The system mass ratio is

tidal evolution eqn. 1

According to the IAU draft resolution, the Moon will turn into a planet at the exact moment when the barycenter moves above the surface of the Earth, which is located at R=6.378e+8 cm. Assuming a circular orbit, the Moon thus needs to be at a=5.18e+10 cm, which means that the Moon needs to recede from its current orbital radius by da=1.34e+10 cm. At the current rate of da/dt=3.8 cm/yr, this would take 3.5 billion years, a timescale that is well within the life expectancy of the Earth in the face of possible destruction by the Red Giant Sun.

This is just a first approximation, however. In reality, the time will be considerably longer, both because the tidal force (and hence the dissipation) decreases as the moon goes outward, and because the current rate of tidal dissipation is near a geological maximum, most likely because the Earth’s oceans are presently in a near-resonant, highly tidally dissipative configuration.

Assuming a constant value of the tidal quality factor Q, the time interval T, required for a satellite to recede from an initial orbital radius a_i to an orbital radius a_0 is given by

tidal evolution timescale

In the above, k_2=0.299 is the Earth’s Love number. Currently, Q=12 for the Earth. Plugging numbers into the above equation yields a time T=1.57 billion years for the Moon to recede to its current location. In the past, however, the average value for Q was higher, and it is likely that it will also be higher in the future. Given that the age of the Earth-Moon system is 4.5 billion years, average Q for the Earth has been more like Q=34. If we assume that Q=34 holds as a long term average value, then we arrive at a best estimate of T=26.8 billion years until the Moon is promoted to planetary status.

Sadly, though, the Moon’s reign as a planet will ultimately be limited. Planetary status is achieved when the Moon’s distance reaches 81.3 Earth radii. For the next 23 billion years thereafter, the Moon will be living the bling planetary lifestyle as it slowly continues to recede. When the Moon reaches ~87 Earth radii, the length of Earth’s rotation will have decreased to ~47 days, and the Earth and the Moon will be tidally despun. Thereafter (as described by Jeffreys, 1970), tidal interactions between the Earth, the Moon, and the Sun’s remnant white dwarf will drive the Moon back inward, eventually stripping it of planetary status, and finally destroying it by tidal breakup into a massive ring system.

13 Planets

the 13th planet

You guys have all read about the recommendation of the IAU committee.

Looks like the Moon’ll be a planet soon! Tidal evolution is currently driving it outward at 3.74 cm per year. It appears that the Moon will be admitted into the planetary club in roughly 30 billion years if we aren’t destroyed by the Sun’s Red Giant phase.

Thresholds

mandarin sunlight

Image Source.

Last week, I started a series of posts that will examine the feasibility of detecting a habitable terrestrial planet orbiting Alpha Centauri B. We want to do this from the ground, using the proven radial velocity technique. Our strategy will be to build a ~1 meter telescope in (probably) Chile with a high-precision spectrometer. The telescope will be used exclusively to obtain velocities of Alpha Centauri B, night after night, whenever the star is above the horizon, and whenever the weather is good.

At La Silla, Alpha Centauri never quite sets below the horizon. From roughly October through December, however, the star is generally too low in the sky to be adequately observed. This generates a yearly periodicity in a simulated 5-year radial velocity time series:
Alpha B time series
(Note that in the original version of last week’s post, I posted an incorrect file version of this figure. The plot has now been replaced in the post with the correct plot.)

The 96076-point time series shown above was generated by Eugenio under the assumption that we can obtain the same radial velocity precision that the HARPS spectrograph obtained on HD69830 (which is a near-twin to Alpha Centauri B). The average radial velocity error is 0.8 m/s, and the observing cadence is 200 seconds. The periodogram shows crystal clear evidence of three of the four terrestrial-mass planets in the simulated system.

alpha B periodogram 1

The large peak in the periodogram at P=347 days corresponds to a planet with half an Earth mass. The two interior peaks are produced by planets with masses similar to Mars. If the planetary masses are doubled, that is, if the largest planet in the system has one Earth mass, then the evidence from the time series is even more overwhelming (the data set is available on the downloadable console as AlphaCenB_m2Y5):

alpha B periodogram 2.

Now I know that scientific progress is the important issue at stake here, and I’m very excited about the upcoming Kepler mission, and the fact that it will be detecting Earth-sized planets in the habitable zones of 12-14 magnitude stars. That’ll be cool. Nevertheless, we’d like to beat Kepler to the punch. We’d like to bag the first habitable Earth-mass planet from the ground. Can we do it?

Kepler is currently scheduled for launch in October 2008. To be confident of an Earth-mass planet in the habitable zone of one of their target stars, they’ll need to see four successive transits. This means that a reasonable date for their big press conference is Dec. 21, 2012. That gives us six years.

There’s a big difference between noisily posting synthetic observations on a blog, and actually observing Alpha Centauri with a purpose-built ~5 million dollar dedicated telescope in the Southern Hemisphere. It’s safe to say that we won’t be seeing first light a year from now, and therefore we won’t have a five-year data stream by the time the current long count is up.

On the other hand, the above periodogram for the Earth-mass planet constitutes an incredibly strong detection. We can be confident in the presence of the planet with considerably less data.

So consider the following example. Let’s say that instead of obtaining HARPS-like 0.8 m/s precision, we’re only able to get 3 m/s precision. This could be the result of Alpha Centauri B showing more short-term jitter than expected, or because we don’t have enough dough to commision an absolutely state-of-the-art spectrometer. Let’s also assume that we only observe for two years rather than five. In this case, the periodogram looks like this:

alpha B periodogram 3

We’ll definitely need to do a proper statistical analysis, but from appearances alone, “chi-by-eye”, the planet is clearly still there at the many sigma level.

Apollo 18

lunar farside from orbit (Apollo 11)

I’m almost too young to remember the Apollo missions. I was five years old in December 1972. Despite great protests and resolve, I had long since gone to bed when Apollo 17 blasted off in a dramatic night launch that marked the last journey into deep space. Early the next morning, Bobby Robinson came running breathless to our back door, “They’re showing the countdown again on TV!” We sprinted down the block through the cold to his house, bursting into the den. The brilliantly spotlighted Saturn V was still on the launchpad. “Four Three Two!” Billows of flame filled the screen. The slow, almost imperceptible lift-off. Shards of ice condensed from the humid Florida air fell away from the great frozen missile like waterfalls.

For days afterward, we built rockets out of legos.

One of our recurring goals here at oklo is to gain an accurate idea of what the extrasolar planets really look like. We’re working on this by connecting detailed numerical simulations to state-of-the-art rendering. The photographs brought back by the Apollo missions provide a key basis of insight into much of what we can expect to see. Inspired by Michael Light’s Full Moon, I’ve thus been spending time working through the Apollo Lunar Surface Journal, which provides a detailed commentary and a near-complete trove of images and video from all of the lunar missions. It’s easy to become engrossed to the point where hours simply disappear.

Several impressions hang in my mind. When Earth is in view, or when you’re standing on the airless lunar surface with the Sun at your back, the sky is completely black. No stars visible, no glowingly luminous nebulosity in the sky. The dynamic range vastly exceeds what the human eye can handle.

lens flare on the lunar surface
If the Sun is in view, light scattered by the optical system — be it a Hasselblad camera lens, or a gold-plated faceplate visor, or an eye lens — has a huge effect on the visual field. An understanding of the lens flare is essential to producing a realistic visual impression.

Harrison Schmitt during Apollo 17

Harrison Schmitt aboard Apollo 17

When the Apollo Spacecraft arrived at the Moon, one astronaut remained alone aboard the command module, in orbit a mere 65 miles or so above the lunar surface. For the half of each orbit above the lunar farside, radio communication was impossible, with the signal regained each time the Earth rose above the horizon.
earthrise

Ken Mattingly, of Apollo 16 described the experience of being alone in orbit:

I was lying there, looking out the window as we moved across the terminator. I was listening to the Symphonie Fantastique, and it was dark in the spacecraft. I was looking down at dark ground, and there was Earthshine. It was like looking at a snow-covered Earth scene under a full moon.