A few years ago, I put up several posts describing Metaculus, the online prediction site that I co-founded with Anthony Aguirre and several other partners. In the interim, the site has grown substantially. It’s now logged roughly half a million predictions from a community of more than 10,000 users on a panoply of nearly 7,000 questions. Among the subset of binary questions that have resolved, the track record shows that Metaculus’ Brier Score stands at an impressive 0.117.
As the site has grown we’ve added staff, including a full-time CEO and a CTO, and a roster of analysts and question writers. We’re running real money competitions, including a $50K forecasting tournament on topics related to the development of artificial intelligence.
Many oklo.org readers may find interest in the Fermi-Drake question series, where we’re accumulating predictions on the terms of the famous equation for N.
Beyond N, there are many active questions that touch on astrophysical topics.
including the ultimate question:
currently registering a 71% probability of resolving positively.
Just to let you know, I have been reading your posts for the past decade or so ! Sometimes I forget about you for couple of months and then come back to find some nice new musings about the delight of extraplanetary discoveries and related topics :)
Thank you for being an inspiration and reminding that there is always something higher that we can look up to in our usually mundane and dull lives :)