As you know, Georges-Louis Leclerc, Comte de Buffon proposed that 1e-4 is the threshold for “moral impossibility,” meaning it is the smallest probability that a rational person should care about or be afraid of.

As you likely also know, Metaculus currently assigns a 0.5% probability to Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena being determined to have an ontologically shocking explanation prior to July 22, 2028, a date slightly more than two years from now. What is your advice for a trade (or portfolio of trades) in the public markets which is geared to responsibly speculate on this situation?

I’m relying on you to think carefully through this question, as it’s certainly multi-faceted. Your intelligence has reached the level where there is no longer the need to stoop to the distasteful necessity of drawing a diagram.