Comments on: Just like in 1846 http://oklo.org/2008/04/28/just-like-in-1846/ characterizing planetary systems Fri, 18 Nov 2011 22:27:52 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: tacitus http://oklo.org/2008/04/28/just-like-in-1846/comment-page-1/#comment-4902 tacitus Sat, 03 May 2008 07:38:36 +0000 http://oklo.org/?p=278#comment-4902 Hey MaDer, nice to have an optimistic viewpoint :). You may not be too far off with most of the predictions, but I get the sense that we're still at least a couple of centuries from sending probes to other stars. The could, of course, be an astonishing breakthrough in propulsion that could get us there, but I suspect that it will take long than that. Hey MaDer, nice to have an optimistic viewpoint :). You may not be too far off with most of the predictions, but I get the sense that we’re still at least a couple of centuries from sending probes to other stars. The could, of course, be an astonishing breakthrough in propulsion that could get us there, but I suspect that it will take long than that.

]]> By: MaDeR http://oklo.org/2008/04/28/just-like-in-1846/comment-page-1/#comment-4900 MaDeR Thu, 01 May 2008 20:49:25 +0000 http://oklo.org/?p=278#comment-4900 Tacticus: in 165 years? My guess is in order of milions catalogued planets. Premilinary list of few hundred best candidates to future (in a few hundred years) colonization. Microscopic life on many worlds taken as obvious thing. Maps of major features on close (>100 ly) worlds. Few interstellar unmanned probes with AI on board preformed flyby of closest stars, one around Alpha Centauri that orbits one of stars in this system. These are my guesses. Heck, some of these things (obviously in less quantity) can become real in my life. We already create very crude "maps" of hot jupiters. Tacticus: in 165 years? My guess is in order of milions catalogued planets. Premilinary list of few hundred best candidates to future (in a few hundred years) colonization. Microscopic life on many worlds taken as obvious thing. Maps of major features on close (>100 ly) worlds. Few interstellar unmanned probes with AI on board preformed flyby of closest stars, one around Alpha Centauri that orbits one of stars in this system.

These are my guesses.

Heck, some of these things (obviously in less quantity) can become real in my life. We already create very crude “maps” of hot jupiters.

]]> By: thiessen http://oklo.org/2008/04/28/just-like-in-1846/comment-page-1/#comment-4896 thiessen Wed, 30 Apr 2008 22:43:14 +0000 http://oklo.org/?p=278#comment-4896 Japf created a testable hypothesis by finding that potential inner planet. What would the best way to produce testable predictions for radial velocity sets? I would guess: comparing a given fit to the published fit for that system and looking for time windows when the RV difference between the two fits exceeds a certain threshold. That would allow more efficient targeting for the big telescopes and perhaps allow faster times to discovery for new planets. That might be a nice function in systemic. Chris Japf created a testable hypothesis by finding that potential inner planet. What would the best way to produce testable predictions for radial velocity sets?

I would guess: comparing a given fit to the published fit for that system and looking for time windows when the RV difference between the two fits exceeds a certain threshold. That would allow more efficient targeting for the big telescopes and perhaps allow faster times to discovery for new planets.

That might be a nice function in systemic.

Chris

]]> By: andy http://oklo.org/2008/04/28/just-like-in-1846/comment-page-1/#comment-4891 andy Mon, 28 Apr 2008 12:46:17 +0000 http://oklo.org/?p=278#comment-4891 Talking of the Titius-Bode "law", on the <a href="http://207.111.201.70/php/forummsg.php?post=269" rel="nofollow">backend discussion forum</a> some of us were recently having a discussion of whether extrasolar systems exhibit such numerical relationships between planetary orbits. Talking of the Titius-Bode “law”, on the backend discussion forum some of us were recently having a discussion of whether extrasolar systems exhibit such numerical relationships between planetary orbits.

]]> By: tacitus http://oklo.org/2008/04/28/just-like-in-1846/comment-page-1/#comment-4890 tacitus Mon, 28 Apr 2008 07:36:51 +0000 http://oklo.org/?p=278#comment-4890 I know this is somewhat tangential to the subject of the post, but mention of forthcoming Neptunian anniversary has me wondering where we will be in the search for exoplanets in another Neptunian year -- another 165-or-so years hence. I understand that it's tough enough to predict where we'll be in 10 years let along 165, but given how far we have come since Neptune's discovery, it would be fun to speculate how much further we can go, no? Given that we'll probably still be just puttering around our own Solar System in 165 years, the hunt for exoplanets will almost certainly continue be our only practical window on our galactic neighborhood. But how far will we get? Will we have a fleet of deep space telescopes combining to produce sharp images of Earth-like exoplanets by then? How many exoplanets will we have in our catalogs? Thousands? Tens of thousands? Will we be able to probe far enough to more accurately gauge the odds of life evolving elsewhere? I would love to see a post or two of your speculations (though I would understand if you are reluctant!). Is there a foreseeable limit to the capabilities of future telescopes, even if they are on the Moon or out beyond Jupiter and Saturn? How many light years away will be able to probe without leaving our neck of the woods? Thanks, Mike I know this is somewhat tangential to the subject of the post, but mention of forthcoming Neptunian anniversary has me wondering where we will be in the search for exoplanets in another Neptunian year — another 165-or-so years hence.

I understand that it’s tough enough to predict where we’ll be in 10 years let along 165, but given how far we have come since Neptune’s discovery, it would be fun to speculate how much further we can go, no?

Given that we’ll probably still be just puttering around our own Solar System in 165 years, the hunt for exoplanets will almost certainly continue be our only practical window on our galactic neighborhood. But how far will we get? Will we have a fleet of deep space telescopes combining to produce sharp images of Earth-like exoplanets by then? How many exoplanets will we have in our catalogs? Thousands? Tens of thousands? Will we be able to probe far enough to more accurately gauge the odds of life evolving elsewhere?

I would love to see a post or two of your speculations (though I would understand if you are reluctant!). Is there a foreseeable limit to the capabilities of future telescopes, even if they are on the Moon or out beyond Jupiter and Saturn? How many light years away will be able to probe without leaving our neck of the woods?

Thanks,

Mike

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